Model-vs-market divergence · sorted by |E| descending · snapshot 2026-07-30T01:17Z
Live odds ingestion pending
No real bookmaker lines are ingested yet, so no divergence rows are published. The earlier synthetic, Elo-derived rows (which carried a bookmaker source attribution they did not come from) have been retired rather than shown behind a disclaimer. Real de-vigged divergence appears here once the odds producer runs with a provisioned key. The model-vs-market method is documented at osf.io/spmkg.
p (model) . M★ model-implied probability for the outcome. q (mkt) ; de-vigged market-implied probability from source_book. E ; edge: p(model) − q(market). Positive = model implies higher probability than market.
Rows where the Volatility Gate tripped are annotated with a ◆ dot and remain visible: the gate annotates, it does not filter. Gate rules are shown in the Gate column hover-card. Today the gate evaluates only the Pinnacle staleness rule from a single odds snapshot; the news, intra-book, cross-book and Polymarket rules report as pending data in that hover-card and the row detail, so an Open status is never a full five-rule pass. ε is the pre-registered edge threshold (3% mainline / 5% longshot).
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