10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per nightly snapshot. The pre-registered market layer de-vigs bookmaker odds via the power method, flags edges above a 3% mainline threshold (5% for derivatives), and suppresses them when the volatility gate triggers. The layer covers knockout fixtures live: model probabilities conditioned on settled results are compared against de-vigged market odds, ungraded. Only the 72 pre-registered group-stage forecasts are ever graded. When the odds are older than 30 hours the layer reports itself stale rather than showing stale rows. The full specification: every parameter, every calibration step, every kill criterion: lives in the vault.
The full methodology essay.
Model roster, simulation engine, market layer, volatility gate, and kill criteria. The web-native counterpart to the Phase 1 framework PDF, reading time about 20 minutes.
Read the full methodology →Completed: 104 of 104 matches settled, 0 remaining. The Round of 16 checkpoint has been evaluated: on the 72 pre-registered group-stage forecasts, M2 was 1.47 SE better than M0 against the 2.0 SE threshold; the kill criterion did not fire.
No ties are scheduled today and none settled yesterday. The bracket state carries forward.