Append-only forecast record · 2 records · 1 HIT · 1 MISS · 0 NEUTRAL
0 matches settled · snapshot 2026-06-15T02:34Z
Proper Scoring Rules: lower is better
| Metric | M0 | M1 | M2 | M3 | M★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brier | . | . | . | . | . |
| Log-loss | . | . | . | . | . |
| RPS | . | . | . | . | . |
Calibration: Reliability Diagram
Points on the diagonal indicate perfect calibration. Each point represents one decile bin; size reflects sample count. Only bins with n ≥ 1 are rendered.
Default sort: reverse-chronological. HIT / MISS / NEUTRAL rows share identical grid, padding, and type size. §7.2 invariant. No “win rate” or ROI sorting is exposed. Glossary
Pre-registered §7.6: the three forecasts where M★ assigned the highest probability to a modal outcome that did not occur. This is the inverse of a highlight reel: the strongest statement of calibration discipline the ledger makes.
M★ assigned modal probability 61.0% to outcome 1, but the realized outcome was 2 (model probability on realized: 17.0%). Edge at close: −2.0pp. Gate: Open.
This miss is reported without editorial framing. A miss at high confidence is informative: it tests calibration discipline, not model failure. A well-calibrated 62% prediction misses 38% of the time by design. See the glossary for the HIT/MISS/NEUTRAL definition.