Bracket

Per-round marginal probabilities · snapshot 2026-06-15T02:34Z · phase group stage

MODEL STATE · 2026-06-15

Bracket · per-round marginal probabilities

draw-resolved bracket; per-round marginal probabilities

48 teams · 6 rounds

team · seed · group

GRP

R16

FIN

CHA

ESPSpain#1 · H

97.7%

77.2%

58.5%

42.4%

30.9%

18.7%

FRAFrance#2 · I

93.5%

70.5%

43.6%

27.3%

22.0%

14.4%

ARGArgentina#3 · J

95.2%

67.0%

42.0%

27.4%

22.1%

14.2%

ENGEngland#4 · L

90.6%

62.5%

41.0%

19.9%

15.2%

8.9%

BRABrazil#5 · C

97.2%

71.9%

44.0%

30.0%

13.9%

6.3%

MARMorocco#6 · C

97.0%

70.0%

41.7%

28.6%

12.7%

5.8%

NEDNetherlands#7 · F

86.9%

59.0%

37.9%

17.7%

10.1%

4.8%

PORPortugal#8 · K

85.9%

48.0%

25.4%

10.1%

7.2%

3.6%

BELBelgium#9 · G

97.4%

56.8%

28.5%

16.7%

8.3%

3.6%

GERGermany#10 · E

96.7%

62.4%

38.0%

17.3%

8.8%

3.5%

MEXMexico#11 · A

92.5%

65.6%

42.3%

20.1%

7.3%

2.7%

CROCroatia#12 · L

76.3%

41.3%

17.7%

5.8%

4.0%

1.7%

SUISwitzerland#13 · B

84.8%

51.1%

30.1%

12.4%

4.0%

1.4%

USAUnited States#14 · D

75.8%

36.2%

18.0%

10.3%

3.6%

1.2%

URUUruguay#15 · H

82.6%

43.8%

14.6%

7.0%

3.1%

1.1%

IRNIR Iran#16 · G

89.1%

47.9%

22.1%

11.0%

3.2%

1.0%

COLColombia#17 · K

75.0%

32.8%

13.3%

4.2%

2.5%

1.0%

JPNJapan#18 · F

72.4%

40.9%

19.0%

7.2%

2.8%

0.9%

SENSenegal#19 · I

66.9%

28.1%

8.0%

3.4%

2.0%

0.9%

KORKorea Republic#20 · A

81.0%

53.0%

25.5%

10.5%

2.5%

0.7%

ECUEcuador#21 · E

86.9%

50.3%

23.2%

9.7%

2.5%

0.7%

EGYEgypt#22 · G

82.7%

48.0%

21.6%

10.1%

2.0%

0.6%

TURTürkiye#23 · D

60.7%

26.0%

11.8%

5.9%

1.4%

0.4%

CIVCôte d'Ivoire#24 · E

76.7%

46.6%

19.2%

7.5%

1.4%

0.4%

CANCanada#25 · B

67.9%

33.5%

14.8%

4.9%

1.2%

0.3%

SCOScotland#26 · C

64.6%

49.7%

21.2%

8.4%

1.3%

0.3%

AUSAustralia#27 · D

54.9%

21.8%

9.6%

4.5%

1.0%

0.2%

CZECzechia#28 · A

62.1%

40.1%

16.5%

6.0%

0.9%

0.1%

AUTAustria#29 · J

51.0%

14.1%

2.9%

0.9%

0.4%

0.1%

SWESweden#30 · F

34.3%

15.8%

5.5%

1.7%

0.3%

0.1%

ALGAlgeria#31 · J

42.9%

10.3%

1.9%

0.5%

0.3%

0.1%

PARParaguay#32 · D

36.8%

14.1%

5.1%

2.0%

0.4%

0.1%

PANPanama#33 · L

28.2%

7.9%

1.5%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

QATQatar#34 · B

41.9%

18.5%

5.9%

1.5%

0.2%

0.0%

RSASouth Africa#35 · A

42.6%

27.3%

8.7%

2.3%

0.3%

0.0%

NORNorway#36 · I

28.4%

7.5%

1.4%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

TUNTunisia#37 · F

27.9%

12.6%

3.9%

1.5%

0.1%

0.0%

CPVCabo Verde#38 · H

13.6%

5.9%

1.3%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

KSASaudi Arabia#39 · H

21.3%

9.2%

2.5%

0.8%

0.1%

0.0%

BIHBosnia & Herzegovina#40 · B

27.1%

10.8%

2.6%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

CODCongo DR#41 · K

20.5%

4.0%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

CUWCuraçao#42 · E

18.3%

12.5%

2.2%

0.5%

0.0%

GHAGhana#43 · L

4.9%

0.6%

0.1%

0.0%

HAIHaiti#44 · C

13.1%

10.3%

2.3%

0.3%

0.0%

IRQIraq#45 · I

11.2%

1.5%

0.1%

0.0%

JORJordan#46 · J

10.9%

1.0%

0.1%

0.0%

NZLNew Zealand#47 · G

15.7%

11.1%

2.2%

0.4%

0.0%

UZBUzbekistan#48 · K

18.7%

3.1%

0.5%

0.0%

P(reach round) density

100%

column legend

R16: marginal P(reach round of 16 from group). · QF: marginal P(reach quarter-final). · SF: marginal P(reach semi-final). · FIN: marginal P(reach final). · CHA: marginal P(champion).

All values are marginal over the Monte Carlo ensemble; not conditional on the team surviving the previous round. A 50% R16 and 25% QF means one in four MC runs has the team in the QF, not that half of those reaching R16 then advance.

provenancepre-registered · osf.io/spmkg