About
A probabilistic pricing study for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It publishes every night the current state of the M★ probability distribution, its divergence from market-implied probabilities, and an append-only record of every forecast the model has ever made.
A publicly-hosted, nightly-rebuilt, read-only research terminal. It renders the state of M★ against the 2026 FIFA World Cup and publishes its forecast record. Its content is primarily tabular. Its voice is primarily academic.
Every number rendered is traceable to a specific code_sha, data_sha, and mc_seed in the Phase 7 forecast log. A reader can reconstruct any reported probability from published artifacts alone.
This is not a prediction product. It does not give gambling advice. The word “bet” does not appear in the product UI; a pre-registration commitment and a design invariant. See the pre-registration for the full methodological lockdown.
Nicolás Duarte Jaraba. Pre-registration and methodology sealed 2026-04-22 under OSF registration osf.io/spmkg and git tag v1.0.0-mstar-lock.
APA
Duarte Jaraba, N. (2026). The 45% Problem. Probabilistic Pricing for FIFA World Cup 2026. OSF. https://osf.io/spmkg/overview?view_only=b2ba9087b4ac494f8255388d78af0321
BibTeX
@misc{duarte_jaraba_45_2026,
title = {The 45\% Problem --- Probabilistic Pricing for {FIFA} {World Cup} 2026},
author = {Duarte Jaraba, Nicol\'{a}s},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {\url{https://osf.io/spmkg/overview?view_only=b2ba9087b4ac494f8255388d78af0321}},
note = {Pre-registered, tag v1.0.0-mstar-lock},
}Research publication. No content on this site constitutes investment or gambling advice. See the kill-criteria statement for the pre-registered null-result conditions.