The 45% Problem

Probabilistic pricing for FIFA World Cup 2026. M★ is a bivariate Poisson model with Dixon-Coles correction, calibrated on international match data and compared nightly to bookmaker-implied probabilities. The “45% problem” refers to a systematic divergence documented in Phase 1: market-implied championship probabilities for mid-tier contenders cluster near 45% of their model-implied values, suggesting a persistent structural mispricing that motivated this research programme.

Pre-registered at osf.io/spmkg · tag v1.0.0-mstar-lock · Phase: group stage · 93 matches remaining

A mathematical representation of 10,000 Monte Carlo samples from the M★ posterior, projected onto the FIFA World Cup trophy.

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§ 0 · Scenario

Call the final four.

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Pick four semifinalists. The model has run 10,000 simulated tournaments. See where your scenario lands.

§ 1 · Championship pricing

Tournament leaderboard

MODEL STATE · 2026-06-15

All 48 teams →

#	Team	Conf.	Champion	Final	Semi	95% CI
01	ESP Spain	UEFA	18.9%	30.4%	41.9%	[0.181, 0.196]
02	FRA France	UEFA	14.6%	22.8%	28.4%	[0.140, 0.153]
03	ARG Argentina	CONMEBOL	14.2%	22.1%	27.2%	[0.135, 0.149]
04	ENG England	UEFA	8.3%	14.6%	19.3%	[0.078, 0.089]
05	BRA Brazil	CONMEBOL	6.9%	14.2%	30.2%	[0.064, 0.074]
06	MAR Morocco	CAF	6.2%	13.3%	28.4%	[0.058, 0.067]
07	NED Netherlands	UEFA	4.9%	10.4%	17.9%	[0.045, 0.053]
08	GER Germany	UEFA	3.8%	8.7%	17.8%	[0.034, 0.042]

§ 1.5 · Modal path

Most likely bracket

Full bracket →

Each match shows the posterior probability that the favoured side advances. Click a team to open its progression page. The chain · R16 through final: is the sequence of modal outcomes; its joint likelihood is much lower than any leg alone.

Stage 1 · 14 · 18 Jun

Round of 16

R16 · Match 01

R16 · Match 02

R16 · Match 03

R16 · Match 04