Current-state conditional view, NOT graded. It conditions on the real knockout draw and settled results: eliminated teams drop to zero and the bracket below advances round by round as matches settle. It now differs from the frozen forecast. Only the frozen pre-tournament forecast above is scored by the public ledger. Sourced from active batch batch_20260730_011604Z · conditioned true · knockouts conditioned 32.
The actual draw as it resolves: settled results on decided matches, the model's conditional advance probability on matches still to play. Ungraded.
Frozen pre-tournament forecast · per-round marginal probabilities from the locked Monte Carlo batch · snapshot 2026-07-30T01:17Z · phase completed
These probabilities do not yet condition on settled results. They are the pre-tournament forecast the public ledger grades, held fixed as matches play out.