Bracket

Per-round marginal probabilities · snapshot 2026-06-15T03:47Z · phase group stage

MODEL STATE · 2026-06-15

Bracket · per-round marginal probabilities

draw-resolved bracket; per-round marginal probabilities

48 teams · 6 rounds

team · seed · group

GRP

R16

FIN

CHA

ESPSpain#1 · H

97.8%

77.6%

58.0%

41.9%

30.4%

18.9%

FRAFrance#2 · I

93.2%

70.2%

43.5%

28.4%

22.8%

14.6%

ARGArgentina#3 · J

95.1%

67.8%

42.3%

27.2%

22.1%

14.2%

ENGEngland#4 · L

90.7%

62.3%

41.5%

19.3%

14.6%

8.3%

BRABrazil#5 · C

97.4%

71.2%

44.6%

30.2%

14.2%

6.9%

MARMorocco#6 · C

97.4%

70.8%

42.2%

28.4%

13.3%

6.2%

NEDNetherlands#7 · F

86.9%

59.3%

38.0%

17.9%

10.4%

4.9%

GERGermany#8 · E

97.2%

62.8%

38.7%

17.8%

8.7%

3.8%

BELBelgium#9 · G

97.3%

57.1%

28.7%

17.2%

8.5%

3.6%

PORPortugal#10 · K

85.8%

47.8%

25.1%

10.2%

6.7%

3.5%

MEXMexico#11 · A

92.0%

65.8%

43.0%

21.0%

7.3%

2.7%

CROCroatia#12 · L

76.0%

40.3%

16.7%

5.5%

3.5%

1.5%

USAUnited States#13 · D

76.6%

36.3%

18.0%

10.3%

3.6%

1.2%

URUUruguay#14 · H

83.1%

43.8%

15.2%

7.0%

3.2%

1.2%

SUISwitzerland#15 · B

84.3%

50.2%

29.3%

12.7%

4.3%

1.1%

JPNJapan#16 · F

71.7%

40.6%

19.0%

7.3%

2.8%

0.9%

IRNIR Iran#17 · G

89.6%

48.2%

22.1%

11.3%

3.1%

0.9%

COLColombia#18 · K

75.2%

33.7%

13.5%

4.3%

2.5%

0.9%

ECUEcuador#19 · E

86.5%

48.7%

22.1%

9.2%

2.5%

0.7%

KORKorea Republic#20 · A

81.1%

52.3%

25.1%

10.3%

2.4%

0.7%

SENSenegal#21 · I

65.9%

27.5%

8.4%

3.3%

1.9%

0.6%

EGYEgypt#22 · G

83.1%

47.9%

20.8%

9.6%

2.1%

0.5%

TURTürkiye#23 · D

60.1%

25.7%

11.6%

5.5%

1.5%

0.4%

AUSAustralia#24 · D

56.0%

23.2%

9.5%

4.5%

1.2%

0.4%

CANCanada#25 · B

68.1%

34.0%

14.1%

4.5%

1.0%

0.3%

CIVCôte d'Ivoire#26 · E

77.4%

47.1%

19.0%

7.8%

1.5%

0.3%

CZECzechia#27 · A

62.0%

40.3%

16.4%

5.5%

0.9%

0.2%

SCOScotland#28 · C

63.4%

48.9%

20.4%

7.8%

0.9%

0.2%

AUTAustria#29 · J

51.4%

14.5%

2.7%

0.7%

0.4%

0.1%

SWESweden#30 · F

34.6%

16.3%

5.6%

1.8%

0.4%

0.1%

ALGAlgeria#31 · J

43.0%

10.3%

1.7%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

PANPanama#32 · L

28.4%

8.4%

1.9%

0.3%

0.1%

PARParaguay#33 · D

36.4%

13.7%

5.3%

2.0%

0.3%

0.1%

RSASouth Africa#34 · A

43.1%

28.2%

9.1%

2.4%

0.3%

0.1%

NORNorway#35 · I

28.7%

7.0%

1.1%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

BIHBosnia & Herzegovina#36 · B

26.6%

10.6%

2.9%

0.7%

0.0%

TUNTunisia#37 · F

27.9%

13.1%

4.5%

1.2%

0.2%

0.0%

KSASaudi Arabia#38 · H

20.6%

9.2%

2.6%

0.7%

0.1%

0.0%

QATQatar#39 · B

43.0%

18.5%

6.1%

1.8%

0.2%

0.0%

CODCongo DR#40 · K

21.0%

3.8%

0.7%

0.1%

0.0%

CPVCabo Verde#41 · H

13.2%

5.6%

1.4%

0.3%

0.0%

CUWCuraçao#42 · E

17.7%

12.1%

2.3%

0.4%

0.0%

GHAGhana#43 · L

4.8%

0.5%

0.0%

HAIHaiti#44 · C

12.8%

10.2%

2.4%

0.3%

0.0%

IRQIraq#45 · I

12.2%

1.7%

0.2%

0.0%

JORJordan#46 · J

10.6%

1.1%

0.1%

0.0%

NZLNew Zealand#47 · G

15.3%

10.7%

2.1%

0.4%

0.0%

UZBUzbekistan#48 · K

18.0%

3.2%

0.7%

0.1%

0.0%

P(reach round) density

100%

column legend

R16: marginal P(reach round of 16 from group). · QF: marginal P(reach quarter-final). · SF: marginal P(reach semi-final). · FIN: marginal P(reach final). · CHA: marginal P(champion).

All values are marginal over the Monte Carlo ensemble; not conditional on the team surviving the previous round. A 50% R16 and 25% QF means one in four MC runs has the team in the QF, not that half of those reaching R16 then advance.

provenancepre-registered · osf.io/spmkg