§ II · Artifact of record
Phase 1 framework
What’s in this paper, who it’s for, and what the web Vault covers instead. The PDF remains the artifact of record for citation and archival, pre-registered alongside the OSF lockdown. For narrative reading, the long-form Vault articles linked in the outline below are the primary surface.
Outline
Each paper section links to its web-native Vault article where one exists. The web version carries the same argument with living figures drawn from the current snapshot.
- § 1Problem framing: the residual varianceread → The 45% Problem
- § 2Why probability distributions over point predictionsread → Why probabilities
- § 3Model lineage: M0 through M★read → Anatomy of M0 to M★
- § 3.2Bivariate Poisson with Dixon-Coles correctionread → Simulation
- § 4Market layer: de-vigging and the power methodread → Market layer
- § 5Volatility gate: the five rulesread → Volatility gate
- § 6Evaluation: Brier, log-loss, CLVread → Evaluation