Reference
1 min readlast revised 2026-04-22snapshot 2026-06-15T03:47ZCitation
BibTeX and APA citation blocks. Snapshot-addressable citation format for academic use.
Contents
Citation
Use the citation blocks in the footer of this page or the blocks below when referencing this project in academic work. For snapshot-specific citations (where you want to lock a reference to the exact probability values you observed on a given date), append the snapshot_id from the page footer to the URL.
Project-level citation
Cite the pre-registered OSF record when referencing the methodology or pre-tournament forecasts. The DOI and signed tag guarantee the referenced constants have not changed since lockdown.
Snapshot-level citation
When citing a specific probability figure observed on a specific date, append the snapshot identifier to the URL: for example, https://the45percent.org/?snapshot=2026-06-11T04:00Z. The full snapshot bundle is archived and publicly downloadable from /api/snapshot/manifest.json.